[SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary] Weakened cost support + supply-demand imbalance, anode material prices fell during the week

Lithium Ore:

This week, lithium ore prices fluctuated within a certain range. Overseas mines were notably reluctant to budge on prices, with quotes at or above $630/mt. Downstream lithium chemical plants and purchasing traders, driven by pessimistic expectations for future lithium chemical prices, showed weak purchase willingness for this high-priced lithium ore. Overall market transactions were mediocre, with prices falling within the range of $600-620/mt. It is expected that lithium ore prices will continue to fluctuate in tandem with lithium carbonate prices in the later period.

Lithium Carbonate:

This week, the domestic lithium carbonate market exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by stabilization, with the price fluctuation range gradually narrowing. At the beginning of the week, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate slightly declined from 60,500 yuan/mt to 60,450 yuan/mt, while the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also pulled back synchronously to 58,850 yuan/mt. The market stabilized in the second half of the week. Overall, the price center of spot lithium carbonate shifted slightly downward WoW, but the decline significantly slowed down. From the perspective of the supply-demand pattern, the current lithium carbonate market remains in a state of supply surplus. Although upstream lithium chemical plants intend to refuse to budge on prices, the market has an abundant supply of available goods, and inventory pressure limits the upward momentum of prices. Downstream material enterprises maintain a cautious procurement strategy, primarily focusing on restocking based on demand, with no large-scale stockpiling demand emerging yet. It is worth noting that the lithium carbonate futures market, which was previously disrupted by macro sentiment, gradually returned to being dominated by fundamental factors this week, with the fluctuation range significantly narrowing and aligning with the trend of the spot market. Market transactions were relatively sluggish, mainly driven by rigid demand. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of the supply-demand imbalance not yet being substantially alleviated, lithium carbonate prices are likely to continue maintaining a pattern of fluctuation at lows.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to decline WoW, primarily due to the weakened cost support from low lithium ore prices and the downward pull of lower lithium carbonate prices. In terms of production, recent adjustments have been made to some production lines due to the narrowing lithium carbonate-lithium hydroxide price spread, high inventory levels, insignificant demand growth for lithium hydroxide, and sales restrictions. In terms of market sentiment, as it is currently the time for quarterly contracts and new monthly order negotiations, downstream players have a strong willingness to drive down prices. On the lithium chemical side, driven by pessimistic expectations for future lithium chemicals, there is a certain reluctance to budge on prices in long-term contract negotiations, which requires further continuous attention.
It is expected that lithium hydroxide prices will continue to decline in the short term.

Refined cobalt:

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. On the supply side, due to the low profitability of refined cobalt production, the operating rate of smelters remained relatively low, resulting in a slight decrease in refined cobalt supply. On the demand side, influenced by the DRC's policy-related news, some smelters and traders reported an increased willingness of downstream producers to inquire about prices. However, most buyers and sellers are still in the negotiation phase, and overall market transactions remain sluggish. The DRC's policy is expected to be officially announced by the end of this week. It is anticipated that after the policy is implemented, there will be significant changes in spot prices.

Intermediate products:

This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products remained stable. On the supply side, mainstream mines continued to maintain their long-term contract supply rhythm, and traders' offers remained stable. On the demand side, downstream smelters continued to deplete their inventories, and some traders showed increased interest in inquiring about prices, but actual transactions were limited. Overall, due to the uncertainty surrounding the DRC's subsequent policies, buyers and sellers remained cautious, and overall spot transactions were sluggish. The DRC's policy is expected to be officially announced by the end of this week. It is anticipated that after the policy is implemented, some smelters that had previously stockpiled less will gradually resume procurement, and market transactions may improve.

Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride):

This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate declined slightly. On the supply side, the offers of mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters remained relatively stable, with some enterprises lowering their offers to boost mid-year performance, while the offers of recycling plants remained at the lower end of the market. On the demand side, orders from ternary cathode precursor producers did not show significant recovery, maintaining just-in-time procurement. Refined cobalt procurement was basically suspended due to its low profitability, and Co3O4 producers were still depleting their inventories due to excessive stockpiling in the early stage. Overall, although the willingness of downstream producers to inquire about prices increased somewhat due to the DRC's policy-related news, buyers remained cautious, with inquiries mainly aimed at probing sellers' bottom prices, and actual market transactions were limited. The DRC's policy is expected to be officially announced by the end of this week. It is anticipated that after the policy is implemented, there will be significant fluctuations in the spot price of cobalt sulphate.

This week, the spot price of cobalt chloride continued its downward trend, with overall market transactions remaining sluggish. On the supply side, some smelters chose to suspend quoting and shipping, waiting for clarity on the upcoming DRC policy, while a few smelters continued to ship at lower prices, causing some disturbances in market price trends and psychological expectations. On the demand side, downstream enterprises had relatively sufficient inventory levels, with insufficient enthusiasm for market inquiries, maintaining an overall wait-and-see attitude. Recently, unofficial information has had some impact on market sentiment, but overall market prices have remained relatively stable. Given that June 22 is a critical time point for the DRC government's policy announcement, it is expected that cobalt chloride prices will experience significant fluctuations next week. If the policy ultimately adopts the form of "postponing the export ban and implementing quota management," as widely anticipated by the market, there is a strong possibility of a substantial increase in cobalt chloride prices next week.

Cobalt salts (Co3O4):

This week, the spot price of Co3O4 continued to experience a slight correction. In terms of supply, the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Most smelters adhered to a price floor of 190,000 yuan/mt, but some still sold at prices below this level. The main driving factor behind the recent continuous price decline is the approaching year-end, with most smelters having a need to clear inventory. The emergence of low-priced resources further suppressed spot prices. On the demand side, LCO producers generally adhere to a "produce based on sales" strategy, adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards Co3O4 procurement. The DRC will finalize its policies related to cobalt raw materials by the end of this week, and it is expected that the cobalt market will undergo significant changes next week. If the policy direction aligns with the current mainstream market expectations, namely "postponing the export ban and implementing quota management," there is a high likelihood of a substantial increase in Co3O4 prices next week.

Nickel sulphate:

On June 19, the SMM index price for battery-grade nickel sulphate was 27,363 yuan/mt, with a quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate of 27,370-27,800 yuan/mt, and the average price fell slightly compared to yesterday. On the cost side, nickel prices returned to fundamentals and declined slightly this week, leading to a weakening in the production cost of nickel salts. From the demand side, some precursor plants began inquiring about next month's orders this week, but overall demand remained sluggish, with low acceptance of nickel salt prices. In terms of supply, some nickel salt smelters had high inventory levels and faced shipping pressure, leading to a loosening of nickel salt quotations. Looking ahead, considering the continued mediocre downstream demand and the weakened bargaining power of some buyers, it is expected that nickel salt prices may further weaken in the short term.

Ternary cathode precursor:

This week, prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series products in the ternary cathode precursor market continued to decline. From the perspective of raw material costs, affected by weak downstream demand, the prices of nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate continued to drop slightly; the price of cobalt sulphate is expected to continue its downward trend before the new export policy of the DRC is officially implemented. Overall market transactions have been sluggish recently. In the NEV market, only orders for medium-to-high nickel products from some leading producers have shown moderate performance, while demand from other enterprises has been relatively average. The consumer market has entered an off-season, with orders pulling back. From the perspective of product series, it is expected that in the short term, 6-series ternary cathode precursors will continue to squeeze the market share of 5-series and 8-series products. In terms of pricing, ternary cathode precursor prices are likely to continue a slight downward trend next week.

Ternary cathode materials:

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to decline. Affected by the dual impact of weak market demand and overcapacity, ternary cathode material prices lacked upward momentum. In terms of raw materials, due to sluggish downstream demand, the prices of nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate all showed a slight downward trend; the decline in lithium carbonate prices slowed down, while lithium hydroxide continued to show a relatively significant downward trend. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for the ternary cathode material market, and the overall market performance in June has been relatively mediocre. In the NEV market, only some leading battery cell manufacturers have certain new demand for medium- and high-nickel products, while most producers' order performance has been mediocre; demand in the small power and consumer markets has been relatively better, but the recent growth rate has also slowed down. Overall, actual transactions have been sluggish, and the industry's focus is on changes in the DRC's cobalt export policy. It is expected that ternary cathode material prices will continue to decline in the short term.

LFP:

This week, LFP prices fell slightly, with an overall decline of about 60 yuan/mt, mainly due to the slight downward trend in lithium carbonate prices this week, which accumulated a decline of about 200 yuan/mt. In the market, material producers' overall production remained stable this week, and demand began to diverge. After the impact of the US tariff reduction, the increase in ESS orders was significant, boosting overall industry production enthusiasm. However, orders in the NEV market continued to show a slight downward trend, mainly due to the NEV market's demand and performance falling short of expectations, and downstream battery cell manufacturers' NEV market production schedules were expected to decrease week by week. It is expected that LFP material production in June will increase due to the pull from ESS demand, but the increase will be very limited.

Iron phosphate:

This week, the price center of iron phosphate continued to decline, while the raw material market remained stable. Specifically, the prices of phosphoric acid and industrial-grade MAP have not shown significant changes. It is worth noting that the price of ferrous sulphate has recently increased, and supply has also become slightly tight. With the expansion of capacity or the resumption of production activities by some downstream enterprises, the demand for iron phosphate is expected to increase. The iron phosphate market as a whole has shown a stable trend without significant fluctuations. Currently, as the critical moment for mid-year tenders and order negotiations approaches, the payment terms for iron phosphate are also receiving significant attention. It is understood that the payment terms for most iron phosphate remain between 30 and 90 days. If enterprises choose to shorten the payment terms, the product prices will correspondingly decrease.

LCO:

This week, the market price of LCO showed a downward trend. Specifically, the mainstream quotations for 4.2V, 4.4V, and 4.5V specification products fell to 208,000 yuan/mt, 212,000 yuan/mt, and 223,000 yuan/mt, respectively. The price adjustments were mainly driven by changes in raw material costs: recently, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have remained stable, while Co3O4 prices have continued to show a significant decline, jointly exerting downward pressure on LCO prices. On the supply side, Co3O4 producers' shipping enthusiasm has increased; on the demand side, terminal battery cell manufacturers are in the active destocking stage, leading to a weakened procurement demand for cathode materials, and LCO cathode material producers have correspondingly reduced their raw material procurement efforts. Given the significant changes expected in the Co3O4 market, if its price rises significantly as expected, it is expected that LCO prices will have strong upward momentum next week.

Anode:

Under the dual effects of weakened cost support and supply-demand imbalance, the prices of some artificial graphite anode materials fell this week. On the cost side, the prices of upstream raw materials have been declining for two consecutive months, providing a cost basis for the decline in product prices; on the demand side, affected by high inventory levels of finished vehicles, the production pace of NEVs has slowed down, causing downward pressure on power battery cell demand; however, the demand in the small ESS market has recovered, to some extent offsetting the decline in terminal demand for battery cells. This change in demand structure has been transmitted upwards, keeping the demand for anode materials at the battery cell end stable; at the same time, the supply side remains abundant. Therefore, the prices of artificial graphite anode materials continued to decline this week. Looking ahead, although overcapacity is difficult to improve in the short term, supported by the potential rebound in cost due to geopolitical issues, anode material prices may stabilize.

This week, against the backdrop of no significant fluctuations in the cost and supply sides of natural graphite, the prices of natural graphite anode materials remained stable. Looking ahead, with the technological updates and iterations of artificial graphite anodes, the gap in core performance indicators with natural graphite anodes is gradually narrowing. Relying on the cost-effectiveness advantages brought about by technological breakthroughs, artificial graphite anodes have begun to seize market share, and some downstream customer demands have shifted significantly, placing natural graphite anode materials under significant competitive pressure. It is expected that in the future, natural graphite anode material prices will face long-term downward pressure.

Separator:

This week, separator market prices remained stable overall. Specifically: mainstream quotations for wet-process separators: 5μm at 1.35 yuan/m², 7μm at 0.76 yuan/m², and 9μm at 0.74 yuan/m². Mainstream quotations for dry-process separators: 12μm at 0.45 yuan/m² and 16μm at 0.44 yuan/m². The supply side is constrained by the prolonged capacity release cycle, and the accumulated inventory capacity from the previous period has not been fully digested, resulting in a continued supply surplus in the market. The demand side shows structural differentiation: demand in the power battery sector fell short of expectations, while demand in the ESS sector exceeded previous market predictions. The combined effect of these two factors has led to a slight MoM increase in overall industry demand. Based on the current supply-demand balance, it is expected that separator prices will remain stable in the short term, with limited price fluctuations.

Electrolyte

: This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. On the cost side, the price of LiPF6, a core raw material for electrolytes, fell slightly, while solvents, influenced by the price transmission of upstream petrochemical products, rose slightly, and additive prices remained stable. As a result, the overall manufacturing cost of electrolytes has not shown significant fluctuations recently, and the cost side remains relatively stable. On the demand side, the power market is dominated by seasonal factors, with June being the traditional off-season for NEV sales, resulting in mediocre auto sales performance and a slight MoM decline in power battery demand. In the ESS market, due to the positive effects of the US tariff reduction on China, ESS demand has increased. Overall, demand has shown no significant changes; on the supply side, electrolyte enterprises continue to deepen the "produce based on sales" operational model. Against the backdrop of long-term low electrolyte prices, some enterprises will actively avoid orders with small profit margins or even losses. However, constrained by the deep-seated contradiction of industry-wide overcapacity, some enterprises still choose to adopt a volume discount strategy. Considering multiple factors, it is expected that electrolyte prices will maintain a narrow rangebound fluctuation in the future.

Sodium-ion battery:

This week, the sodium-ion battery market continued to develop positively, with some enterprises already signing strategic cooperation agreements for ESS projects in H2. There has been a significant increase in orders in the start-stop market, with both layered oxide and polyanionic compounds receiving orders for start-stop applications. Small ESS orders are mainly dominated by polyanionic compounds. As the production scale of cathodes and electrolytes increases, their prices will decline, gradually reducing the cost of sodium-ion batteries.

Recycling:

This week, lithium chemical prices fluctuated, while cobalt salt and nickel salt product prices continued to decline. This week, the coefficients for ternary cathode precursors, LCO black mass, etc., also maintained a downward trend, with the lithium point for LFP pole piece black mass at 2,200-2,300 yuan/mtu and the lithium point for LFP battery black mass at 2,000-2,150 yuan/mtu. Taking ternary cathode precursor black mass as an example: currently, the nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary pole piece black mass is 72-74%, and the lithium coefficient is 69-72%. The nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary battery black mass is 70-72%. On the demand side, most wet-process LFP producers' procurement volumes this month have remained stable, mainly consuming basic inventory. Due to the market's pessimistic attitude towards subsequent lithium chemical prices, they are cautious about purchasing black mass, resulting in a sluggish market transaction situation. On the supply side, the psychological selling prices of grinding mills and traders have loosened to some extent due to the continuous decline in salt prices. Black mass prices have basically followed the continuous price reduction behavior of salt prices, and market transactions have been sluggish. On the cost side, currently, except for leading integrated wet-process producers, the profits of most wet-process ends are still below the surplus line, especially LFP wet-process producers, which have been significantly affected by the decline in lithium chemical prices. The profits of the grinding end are slightly better than those of the wet-process end, but the profits of some small and medium-sized grinding plants also continue to be negative.

Downstream and terminal:

This week, the price fluctuations of DC-side battery cabins were small. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.432 yuan/Wh; the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.437 yuan/Wh. Owners and integrators are still observing the development trend of the power market participation mechanism for ESS. The overall ESS market remains stable, with small price fluctuations in DC-side battery cabins. SMM expects that in the short term, the prices of DC-side battery cabins may remain stable.

On June 17th, the bid winner announcement for the EPC project of the 2025 Special Action for New-Type Energy Storage in Naiman Banner, Tongliao City - Phase I of the 500MW/2,000MWh Grid-Side ESS Project was released. The project is located in Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia, with a total capacity of 500MW/2,000MWh. The bid winner's quotation was 1,258,001,488.8 yuan, which translates to a bid winning unit price of 0.629 yuan/Wh after conversion.

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News:    

[Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution Plan to Establish a Joint Venture for Automotive Battery Recycling in North America] Toyota Tsusho announced that it has reached an agreement with LG Energy Solution to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North Carolina, US. The newly established joint venture will operate a pre-processing business to crush and classify battery scrap, extracting valuable metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium, with the goal of establishing a supply chain that recycles these materials into new battery production. The relevant facilities are planned to begin operations in 2026. (Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily)
[Fengshan Group: Fengshan Quannuo's Semi-Solid-State Battery Electrolyte Under R&D Testing] Fengshan Group (603810.SH) disclosed the record of investor relations activities. In terms of new energy business, Fengshan Quannuo's semi-solid-state battery electrolyte is currently under R&D testing, and its sodium-ion battery electrolyte is mainly sold to companies such as Zhongna. (Cailian Press)
[Zhang Jinhua of China Society of Automotive Engineers: Scale of Fuel Cell Vehicle Promotion and Application in China Significantly Expanded] Cailian Press, June 18 - At the 2025 International Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Vehicle Conference, Zhang Jinhua, Chairman of the China Society of Automotive Engineers and Executive Vice Chairman of the International Hydrogen Energy Fuel Cell Association, stated that the scale of fuel cell vehicle promotion and application in China has significantly expanded, with a cumulative promotion of over 28,000 units by the end of 2024. Regarding the next steps for the development of China's fuel cell vehicles, Zhang Jinhua suggested: First, promoting demonstration applications in typical scenarios is the core, strengthening the demonstration and implementation of fuel cell vehicles in medium-to-long-distance high-intensity scenarios such as trunk logistics, intercity cold chain transportation, and mining and port areas; Second, optimizing policy support methods is key, providing continuous support in multiple aspects such as fiscal and taxation, policies, and infrastructure demonstration operations, particularly promoting the transfer of financial support involved in relevant demonstration and promotion policies from the vehicle purchase stage to the usage stage; Third, strengthening technological innovation and international cooperation is a priority, focusing on high-temperature and high-load nuclear fuel cell stacks, large-power and long-life fuel cell systems, and large-capacity and low-cost hydrogen storage systems; Fourth, expanding application scenarios and creating model projects are supportive, promoting their demonstration applications in fields such as energy storage and chemical engineering. (Cailian Press)

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Lin Ziya 86-2151666902

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lü Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Zhang He 021-20707850

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Xu Mengqi 021-20707868